The Victoria Day long weekend was somewhat busier than 
normal this year. There was also some news I wanted to touch
on that didn't warrant their own posts.

As in previous years I
treated my coworkers
to cake on Saturday. I
also had the chance on
Friday to listen in on
some of the newer hires
talking positively about
​the Royal Family.

On Saturday I learned that Australian
Prime Minister Scott Morrison, leader
of the right-leaning Liberal/National
Coalition, had won the election over
Bill Shorten of the Labor Party. Bill
Shorten has since resigned as leader.
From a strict monarchist perspective
the end of Mr. Shorten's leadership is
welcomed. He had proposed a binding
plebiscite on the future of the monarchy if he won (followed
by a referendum on the specific type of republic to be
adopted). His defeat makes this plan much less likely to
happen. Especially as Prime Minister Scott Morrison has
declared himself to be a monarchist. This would be a
good time for Australian monarchists in the Labor Party to
start encouraging a leadership candidate more friendly to the
​Australian Monarchy to step forward.

On Victoria Day I hosted a meeting
of the New Brunswick branch of the
Monarchist League of Canada in
Fredericton at the Maverick Room
(pictured). I had re-activated the
branch in October of last year
following a two year hiatus that
resulted from the previous chairman
stepping down. Despite the rainy weather we had ten people
show up. After a brief update on the branch's status and a
social time over dinner we discussed what initiatives we
should pursue as a branch going forward. One new member
was signed up at the meeting and a good time was had by all.

An interesting post showed up on the
Monarchists Facebook page stating that the
UK pressure group Republic no longer has a
functioning organization. The investigation
of this claim does provide some solid
evidence that something is wrong. This year
only three press releases have gone out. This
is paltry when compared to previous years. Their social media has likewise been much reduced in volume. This kind of
slowdown can often be attributed to a lack of volunteers
which stems from a demotivated base. However, the
slowdown does coincide with executive board elections held at
the start of the year so internal conflicts can't be ruled out.
The organization still exists but if it can't find a new strategy
beyond being snarky killjoys they are ​doomed.

I hope everyone had an enjoyable Victoria Day (whatever the
weather might have been).

Loyally Yours,
A Kisaragi Colour

For those watching Australian politics
August was an exciting month. After
two leadership votes in the governing
Liberal Party Malcolm Turnbull has
​been turfed.

This is good news for all loyal subjects
of Her Majesty as Malcolm Turnbull
was a noted republican. He was
replaced by Scott Morrison who is seen
as being more monarchy-friendly. It 
should be noted that I haven't found
any public statement to that effect but
potential monarchist is still better than
confirmed republican. But, as exciting
as all this is its not the point of this
article. A reader has asked for my
thoughts on what effect Australia
becoming a republic would have on Canada. So as that ugly
possibility slowly ebbs away once again lets play a little game
of 'what-if'.

So the referendum results are in and Australia is on its way to
becoming a republic. The first thing you will likely see are
interviews with individuals associated with the republican
movement in Canada. They have been handed a free soapbox
and they will make use of it I'm sure. The only saving grace
being that in the interest of balance representatives of the
Monarchist League of Canada would also likely be
interviewed as well.

The media would simultaneously want politicians to weigh in
on the future of the Canadian Monarchy. This is a little bit
harder to predict the outcomes of. True, no party has ever
made abolishing the monarchy part of their platform and
outspoken republicans have tended to spiral away from the
center of power within their own parties rather than nesting
there. The default position of most MPs is one of 'polite
regard' for the monarchy without much in the way of passion.
There are exceptions, of course, but they don't tend to end up
near the center of power either.

This strategic neutrality likely arose due to:
1. Its unclear if there are any votes to gain from advocating
for a republic, and 
2. The process of becoming a republic, at best, consumes the
party's agenda for the term and gives them little to actually
run on other than having turned Canada into a republic. At
worst a great deal of political capital is spent, the effort fails,
and the party ends up like the Tories in 1993.

In short, party leaders don't, as a rule, see any good reason to
​pick this issue as the one they will champion. But unlike other
events that prods the media into talking about the monarchy
this is a story that would be alive for months. At the very least
you have a spike in media interest just after the referendum
as well as when Australia officially becomes a republic. The
media will poll Canadians at least once (likely more) on their
thoughts on the Canadian Monarchy. These polls generally
show strong support at either end of the debate with a large
section of Canadians not caring either way. I would predict at
least one politician calling for a republic. We might even see
noted republican John Manley give some interviews on the
issue.

If I might be a bit mean for a second I have to point out that it
would be in Canada's interest for Australia's transition to a
republic to be as chaotic and divisive as possible. Both
because it would confirm the political belief in Canada that
the issue isn't worth the trouble (and constitutional reform is
in fact more difficult in Canada than it is in Australia) and the
negative effect it would have on public opinion about trying to
​abolish the monarchy.

Even under a worst case scenario of wide public support for a
republic and political parties championing the issue it is still
likely to come to nothing. Changing Canada into a republic
requires the consent of every province. The provinces have
typically tried to get as much out of the federal government
as possible during these negotiations. Quebec in particular 
as a list of demands it wants implemented. It would be
somewhat ironic but the Canadian monarchy might be saved
by Quebec nationalists trying to blackmail the federal
​government.

But even if we somehow worked out
an agreement between all the provinces
there is an unofficial requirement (that
the government would ignore at its
peril) that the resulting agreement go to
a referendum. Referendums typically
favour the status quo and this one
would be no different.

So to sum up I think Australia becoming a republic would
create some chatter but would result in little success for
Canadian republicans. 

Loyally Yours,
A Kisaragi Colour